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Sort-of live-blogging the midterms....
Nov. 7th, 2018 01:38 pm9:15 Election Night
...mainly because I'll get shit sleep not knowing how things turned out. The first hour after poll-close is the most unreliable and spinny-winny of the entire cycle. It's not helping that we've been in a ridiculous windstorm since (and probably before) I got home; the power's gone off, and quickly come back on, at least five times since around 5 p.m. The adding machine on my desk at home seems to have shat the bed, leading me to believe that a surge from one of the power-ons blowed it up; I'm keeping LaNova disconnected each time the power goes out so it doesn't get fried by a power-on surge.
(Me and this laptop, we'll be hanging together for quite some time. After my major effort Saturday to ship the previous one back to Dell, I discovered that their deal with Fed Ex is "slow boat to Red Rock," with the laptop not scheduled to arrive at the repair depot until Friday, which is when their 7-14 day repair window begins. This one's been fine, except for its touchpad being incredibly touchy and constantly adjusting the display to anywhere from 15% to 380% of what it should be. I also have had to work some workarounds for things in the office that are havin' a failyah to comMUNNicate with other devices, but they'll be okay for the now two week window, as well.)
I did my own civic duty pretty early this morning, but not as early as Eleanor; I'd come home feeling poorly the night before, owing to, well, I didn't know what. The workday was okay for a Monday; I didn't overdo any exercise or other activity; and I'd slept decently the night before. My guesses were bug (seemingly not); PBSD (Post-Bills Stress Disorder); and anxiety about what is going on today. It helped to get into a privacy screen (formerly a voting booth) before arriving at work shortly after 9; I was the 162nd to check in at our polling station. Eleanor was 50 before me, our friend and neighbor Ann 90 before her. Those are higher totals than I've ever seen even in years when I've voted after work.
Just in: Republicans flip the Indiana Senate seat. Not good.
There weren't many contested races on the ballot we voted on. Our Democratic Guv and US Senator won in landslides that were called within minutes of the 9 p.m. poll close. Most of the other races on our local ballot, from state Lej to county clerk, involve Republican incumbents who have the inherent advantages of incumbency, and despite qualified and energetic women running against all of them, I saw too many old coots at our polling place this morning to hold out much hope. Our D Congressman should cakewalk back into office, but I'm watching the three other Congressional races that touch Western NY: the Southern Tier one where a wonderful D is taking on a mealy-mouthed incumbent R; Louise Slaughter's seat-for-life until she died, between an entrenched Albany D and a supposed "outsider" R; and the key one, indicted felon Chris Collins, running in the reddest congressional district in the state against a decent and now-funded D opponent. If he wins, Collins will almost certainly have to resign in order to cop a plea in his insider trading case (unless the Cheeto pardons him, which he quite possibly will), but just this being a competitive race is a sign of how low the man has sunk.
Just in: Al Franken's former MN seat remains D, his replacement beating the wife of Sabres coach Phil Housley. That's the problem with this team; everybody tanks.
Now we're in the silent period. Polls are closed except way west; spinners be spinning, but no real information is really there. Collins is losing in Erie County, but the district covers way redder country to the east. I need to break from this and will probably regroup here before morning....
----
Wednesday, 1 p.m.
....or maybe the next afternoon.
There's a mix in the bag- the immediate results not all good, but the long-term prospects being foretold by them are far better. From the most local on out:
Just one contest in Amherst, for town clerk, and the Democrat lost. Mainly, I think, because there was no Democrat on the ballot; she got booted off after our incompetent county chair screwed up her nominating process, relegating her to the Conservative line (I wrote her in rather than pollute my pen tip with THAT). The last-minute opening of the job was seen in some circles as a potential landing spot to get Chris Collins off the Congressional ballot, and much as I would have enjoyed forcing him to sign my dog licenses until he goes off to prison, he didn't take the gig. We'll get back to his unfinished story in a second.
Far as those entrenched Republican males went? My state senator won, but he will now be in the minority and essentially powerless. My state assemblyman lost, replaced by an energetic woman who who now be in the majority. Our county clerk race was still in a dead heat at last report- amazing, considering the incumbent had major prior name recognition and a year to leverage the influence of the office.
The Congressional races, in order of my previous discussion: our D incumbent did cakewalk back into office; the Southern Tier mealy-mouth held off his biggest-ever challenge from a woman who can probably beat him in a redrawn district (that'll happen after 2020); Louise's seat-for-life is now Joe's-for-life, most likely; but the saddest was the in-between-all-of-them NY27, the reddest in the state, where indicted felon Chris Collins eked out the narrowest of victories. Or maybe not; his D opponent conceded too early (likely another of our party chair's stupid moves) and it's now within the margin of near-mandatory recount. But even if Collins holds on to his seat, he will hold it powerlessly and meaninglessly; his own party stripped him of all committee work when he was indicted, he is now in the minority party, and he's probably just a placeholder until he's convicted, resigns to "spend more time with his family outside the prison they're all going to," or gets pardoned and becomes Cheeto's new Secretary of the Treasury.
The biggest signs of hope? Yes, the Senate is redder, but only through Herculean efforts to hold onto what would've been unthinkable seats to lose before this President in the likes of Texas and Arizona. A larger number of R seats come up each of the next two cycles. More important is where Republicans didn't win: their governor/US Senator candidates went down to defeat in the three key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those three were part of the supposed Great Blue Firewall that Hillary managed to lose two years ago; if those 46 electoral votes flip back where they belong in 2020, even if everything else stays the same, we send Cheeto packing on November 3 of that year.
----
Rest of life's been okay, with the occasional hiccup. I came home after work yesterday to discover Pepper had gotten into our kitchen trash can and completely covered the tile floor, into the living room, with every single stitch of nasty gar-baggge. She was busted and she knew it, slinking to a nearby corner while I swept and herded it all out to the tote. She may have been verklempt over the weather; a warm day, but windy as all get-out, with all of those power flickers; I have now confirmed that, even with a battery installed, the adding machine on my desk at home was indeed fried. Fortunately, I have about 20 other office supplies which all seem to be running out simultaneously, so it won't be a wasted trip.
We're going to a poetry reading tonight, Bohemian Rhapsody one of the next nights thereafter, and then I begin my 60th year. At least I'm feeling a better kind of Blue right now:)
...mainly because I'll get shit sleep not knowing how things turned out. The first hour after poll-close is the most unreliable and spinny-winny of the entire cycle. It's not helping that we've been in a ridiculous windstorm since (and probably before) I got home; the power's gone off, and quickly come back on, at least five times since around 5 p.m. The adding machine on my desk at home seems to have shat the bed, leading me to believe that a surge from one of the power-ons blowed it up; I'm keeping LaNova disconnected each time the power goes out so it doesn't get fried by a power-on surge.
(Me and this laptop, we'll be hanging together for quite some time. After my major effort Saturday to ship the previous one back to Dell, I discovered that their deal with Fed Ex is "slow boat to Red Rock," with the laptop not scheduled to arrive at the repair depot until Friday, which is when their 7-14 day repair window begins. This one's been fine, except for its touchpad being incredibly touchy and constantly adjusting the display to anywhere from 15% to 380% of what it should be. I also have had to work some workarounds for things in the office that are havin' a failyah to comMUNNicate with other devices, but they'll be okay for the now two week window, as well.)
I did my own civic duty pretty early this morning, but not as early as Eleanor; I'd come home feeling poorly the night before, owing to, well, I didn't know what. The workday was okay for a Monday; I didn't overdo any exercise or other activity; and I'd slept decently the night before. My guesses were bug (seemingly not); PBSD (Post-Bills Stress Disorder); and anxiety about what is going on today. It helped to get into a privacy screen (formerly a voting booth) before arriving at work shortly after 9; I was the 162nd to check in at our polling station. Eleanor was 50 before me, our friend and neighbor Ann 90 before her. Those are higher totals than I've ever seen even in years when I've voted after work.
Just in: Republicans flip the Indiana Senate seat. Not good.
There weren't many contested races on the ballot we voted on. Our Democratic Guv and US Senator won in landslides that were called within minutes of the 9 p.m. poll close. Most of the other races on our local ballot, from state Lej to county clerk, involve Republican incumbents who have the inherent advantages of incumbency, and despite qualified and energetic women running against all of them, I saw too many old coots at our polling place this morning to hold out much hope. Our D Congressman should cakewalk back into office, but I'm watching the three other Congressional races that touch Western NY: the Southern Tier one where a wonderful D is taking on a mealy-mouthed incumbent R; Louise Slaughter's seat-for-life until she died, between an entrenched Albany D and a supposed "outsider" R; and the key one, indicted felon Chris Collins, running in the reddest congressional district in the state against a decent and now-funded D opponent. If he wins, Collins will almost certainly have to resign in order to cop a plea in his insider trading case (unless the Cheeto pardons him, which he quite possibly will), but just this being a competitive race is a sign of how low the man has sunk.
Just in: Al Franken's former MN seat remains D, his replacement beating the wife of Sabres coach Phil Housley. That's the problem with this team; everybody tanks.
Now we're in the silent period. Polls are closed except way west; spinners be spinning, but no real information is really there. Collins is losing in Erie County, but the district covers way redder country to the east. I need to break from this and will probably regroup here before morning....
----
Wednesday, 1 p.m.
....or maybe the next afternoon.
There's a mix in the bag- the immediate results not all good, but the long-term prospects being foretold by them are far better. From the most local on out:
Just one contest in Amherst, for town clerk, and the Democrat lost. Mainly, I think, because there was no Democrat on the ballot; she got booted off after our incompetent county chair screwed up her nominating process, relegating her to the Conservative line (I wrote her in rather than pollute my pen tip with THAT). The last-minute opening of the job was seen in some circles as a potential landing spot to get Chris Collins off the Congressional ballot, and much as I would have enjoyed forcing him to sign my dog licenses until he goes off to prison, he didn't take the gig. We'll get back to his unfinished story in a second.
Far as those entrenched Republican males went? My state senator won, but he will now be in the minority and essentially powerless. My state assemblyman lost, replaced by an energetic woman who who now be in the majority. Our county clerk race was still in a dead heat at last report- amazing, considering the incumbent had major prior name recognition and a year to leverage the influence of the office.
The Congressional races, in order of my previous discussion: our D incumbent did cakewalk back into office; the Southern Tier mealy-mouth held off his biggest-ever challenge from a woman who can probably beat him in a redrawn district (that'll happen after 2020); Louise's seat-for-life is now Joe's-for-life, most likely; but the saddest was the in-between-all-of-them NY27, the reddest in the state, where indicted felon Chris Collins eked out the narrowest of victories. Or maybe not; his D opponent conceded too early (likely another of our party chair's stupid moves) and it's now within the margin of near-mandatory recount. But even if Collins holds on to his seat, he will hold it powerlessly and meaninglessly; his own party stripped him of all committee work when he was indicted, he is now in the minority party, and he's probably just a placeholder until he's convicted, resigns to "spend more time with his family outside the prison they're all going to," or gets pardoned and becomes Cheeto's new Secretary of the Treasury.
The biggest signs of hope? Yes, the Senate is redder, but only through Herculean efforts to hold onto what would've been unthinkable seats to lose before this President in the likes of Texas and Arizona. A larger number of R seats come up each of the next two cycles. More important is where Republicans didn't win: their governor/US Senator candidates went down to defeat in the three key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those three were part of the supposed Great Blue Firewall that Hillary managed to lose two years ago; if those 46 electoral votes flip back where they belong in 2020, even if everything else stays the same, we send Cheeto packing on November 3 of that year.
----
Rest of life's been okay, with the occasional hiccup. I came home after work yesterday to discover Pepper had gotten into our kitchen trash can and completely covered the tile floor, into the living room, with every single stitch of nasty gar-baggge. She was busted and she knew it, slinking to a nearby corner while I swept and herded it all out to the tote. She may have been verklempt over the weather; a warm day, but windy as all get-out, with all of those power flickers; I have now confirmed that, even with a battery installed, the adding machine on my desk at home was indeed fried. Fortunately, I have about 20 other office supplies which all seem to be running out simultaneously, so it won't be a wasted trip.
We're going to a poetry reading tonight, Bohemian Rhapsody one of the next nights thereafter, and then I begin my 60th year. At least I'm feeling a better kind of Blue right now:)